Integrated Real Estate Services Forecast 2001 Page 6
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$25.00 - $35.00 prime power centers on Long Island
$400.00 + in Manhattan in the prime retail areas i.e. 5
th
and Madison
Avenues
All other areas a 1%-3% increase
Capitalization Rates
Industrial
9.750% - 12.00%
Office
8.75% - 10.5
Retail
8.50% - 10.75%
Hotel
9.00% - 10.75%
Assisted Living
9.25% - 11.00%
Multi-Family
8.00% - 10.00%
Property Appreciation Rates
Retail
1%-1-1/2%
Office
2%-3%
Industrial
2% -4%
Multi-family
2%-3%
Hotel
0%-1%
Assisted Living
1% - 2%
Consumer Confidence
The consumer confidence level as measured by the Conference Board declined for the 4
th
month in a row. This suggests that the raising of interest rates by the FED has been
successful in cooling down the economy. It fell to 135.8 in October from a revised 134.2 in
September. It fell again in November to 135.5 and fell again to 128.3 in December. The peak
stood at 145 in early 2000 which was the highest reading in 30 years.
A Newsday Poll published 12/7/2000 shows that Long Islanders feel less positive about
having financial good times compared to the same period last year.
It is forecast that consumer confidence will drop throughout the first quarter, level off and then
increase in the fourth quarter.
UNEMPLOYMENT
For the most of 2000 unemployment was at historical lows and inflation was low. Increasing
interest rates by the Fed and increasing energy cost and dot com failures started to make a
dent.
As of September, according to the NYS Labor Department, employment growth in Nassau
and Suffolk as 1,222,000 and 3,697,000 for New York City. In November the U.S. jobless rate
inched up to 4% a thirty year low and 2.8% on Long Island the lowest since 1974.
