18
City over the next two decades. On Long Island, technology has successfully replaced the
defense industry.
Major trends to watch:
1. Markets in Europe & Asia except for Russia continue to grow. Demand for hi-tech will also
continue to grow.
2. E- commerce will explode in spite of efforts to tax it.
3. There will be a continuing marriage of traditional retailers and e-commerce.
4. The dot. com explosion will be reduced radically as conventional business models will bring
rationality instead of euphoria.
5. Linux will continue to grow despite of Windows 2000. IBM recently announced it will invest
$5 Billion into Linux.
6. Electronic payment will continue to improve.
7. Tele-medicine will continue to grow and play more of a role in diagnosis and treatment.
8. Bio-science will also flourish. A new bio-science park will open in SUNY Farmingdale with
the goal to attract start-ups and offer student internships.
9. There is a shortage of skilled workers. Companies such as Cold Spring Harbor
Laboratories have been looking for ways to keep workers from moving.
10. The Silicon Alley in Manhattan will continue to show enormous growth. It acts like a
magnet attracting the top talent and ideas.
REAL ESTATE CYCLE
Given the state of both the national and local economy, the anticipated low inflationary
environment (for now), FED policy changing to anti-recessionary and the stock market it is
estimated that the economy is about 3/4+ way through the current cycle. It is anticipated that
the economy could have 2-3 years of "clear sailing" ahead with some short term problems
possible as a result of lower earnings growth.
Overall, this will be a much better year for real estate professionals than last year. It is forecast
that business will be on average 20% to 30% better in terms of sales, financings and leasing
activity although price increases will be more subdued. Housing starts have fallen sharply last
month as well as refinancing activity.
