Integrated Real Estate Services Forecast 2001 Page 14
14
Brooklyn
Queens
Nassau
Suffolk
1
st
Q
13.7
9.4
10.4
11.8
2
nd
Q
11.1
11.9
14.0
11.5
3
rd
Q
13.4
9.9
12.7
11.8
4
th
Q
13.1
9.7
12.1
13.7
It is forecast that the overall industrial market will remain vibrant in spite of a slowing economy.
The rational being that interest rates will fall, there probably will be a tax cut and economic
activity will increase later on in the year.
HOTEL
Hotels got hammered in the summer of 1998 along with other property classes during the
"Asian" liquidity crisis. However, the hotel segment hasn't seemed to have recovered.
Investigations of the hotel financing market currently reveal that hotels and assisted living
facilities account for only 10% of the prospective mortgage market while all other property
classes equate to 90%. The current mood among lenders is a fragile positive one. Hotel
Business in November/December 2000 issue refers to the recent U.S. department of
Commerce report. "The new forecast says that international travel will set a new record with
57.2 million visitors to the U.S. this year who will pump nearly $106 billion into the nation's
economy. If accurate, this will amount to a 9% increase: 4 million more visitors than last year,
with steady, healthy growth through 2003."
Many analysts are forecasting slow RevPAR growth for the year 2001 but continue to remain
upbeat about the industry in general. Financing for hotels is expected to continue to be
difficult, operating costs will rise due to the labor crunch and overall profitability is expected
to grow. According to PKF Consulting as published by Hotel Business in December 2000
general annual growth of Room RevPAR was as follows:
Year
Annual Growth of
Rooms RevPAR
1995
7.1%
1996
9.0%
1997
8.0%
1998
5.3%
1999
0.4%
2000
3.1%
