James Real Estate RE Inv Criteria Dnvr 2000 3rd Qtr Page 15
JAMES REAL ESTATE SERVICES, INC.
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Leasing Assumptions - Renewal Probability/Time To Relet/Vacancy Loss
Below is a compilation of leasing assumptions typically used by investors in the course of
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis.
Renewal Probability (%) / Release Time (Mos) / Vacancy Loss (%) Industrial
1997
1998
1999
2000
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Nat Den Nat Den Nat Den Nat Den Nat Den Nat Den Nat Den
Warehouse
Renew
Prob'ty
66.0
65.0
65.1
63.5
Release
Time
4.6
5.6
5.8
6.0
Vacancy
Loss
5.8
5.6
5.4
5.3
R&D/Other
Renew
Prob'ty
67.3
64.5
65.4
62.5
Release
Time
4.8
6.3
5.8
5.9
Vacancy
Loss
6.4
6.6
6.1
6.3
Renewal Probability (%) / Release Time (Mos) / Vacancy Loss (%) Retail
1997
1998
1999
2000
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Nat Den Nat Den Nat Den Nat Den Nat Den Nat Den Nat Den
Regional Mall
Renew
Prob'ty
65.6
68.4
65.5
66.9
Release
Time
4.8
6.1
6.1
5.6
Vacancy Loss
5.9
7.2
5.2
5.8
Power Center
Renew
Prob'ty
61.0
66.3
64.7
62.6
Release
Time
6.0
7.7
6.9
6.7
Vacancy
Loss
6.6
7.5
7.1
6.1
Community &
Neighborhood
Renew
Prob'ty
63.0
62.1
64.2
62.7
Release
Time
5.1
5.9
6.3
6.2
Vacancy Loss
6.4
6.8
6.5
5.9
Data Sources: RERC Real Estate Research Corp
